Opinion survey indicators – what can they tell us?

Sentiment indicators, such as the RICS GCPM, play an important role in the analysis of real estate markets. We present independent statistical analysis corroborating their role as early trend indicators and/or as proxy indicators.

This report was not commissioned by RICS World Built Environment Forum. Nor do its findings represent the official position of the European Central Bank. It is, instead, the independent work of the authors. Their findings are truly remarkable.

Professional sentiment monitoring, the like of which RICS undertakes on a quarterly basis, can, in selected markets, accurately predict certain commercial property market conditions over one year in advance. The RICS Global Commercial Property Monitor (GCPM) is shown to accurately foreshadow movement on capital values, investor appetites and space availability in the office, retail, and logistics and warehousing markets. The rate of correlation varies from country to country but is evident to some degree in all but one of the nations covered by this report. It is similarly evident at an aggregate level across the Euro Zone, and the EU27 and UK.

The implications of this are twofold. First, the GCPM and its like can be used as an early trend indicator for the purpose of market analysis. GCPM contributors are uniquely placed to assess the direction of travel in their home markets; the insights that they provide are of enormous predictive value. Second, the results of professional sentiment monitors can be used as proxies in those places where market data is not widely collected or is considered unreliable. Sentiment monitoring is, in effect, the next best available tool.

We have long said the GCPM is the leading indicator of conditions in the global commercial property occupier and investor markets. Now we have the proof. It is our pleasure to share it with you.