This paper explores the feasibility of applying scenario planning and thinking in major and mega construction projects.
Historical data show that construction projects are often not completed on cost nor to the satisfaction of the stakeholders. Ambiguity, complexity and uncertainty are intrinsically bound into major and mega construction (MMC) projects; due in part to, being large undertakings with very long time frames from feasibility to completion, and involving many stakeholders, these problems manifest as cost overruns.
In the paradigm of business strategy scenario planning and thinking is a tool that aids managers to appreciate the future ambiguity, complexity and uncertainty that may exist in their future business environment. This does not appear to have been widely used as a tool within the construction management environment. This paper explores the feasibility of applying scenario planning and thinking in MMC projects.
Through the investigation of several MMC projects as case studies to ascertain the key drivers of cost overruns, at the different stages of the construction lifecycle from feasibility to completion. From the key drivers identification of the main actors/influencer of those drivers can be ascertained. The aim of the research is to develop a conceptual framework to minimise cost overruns at different stages of the construction lifecycle of MMC projects.
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