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16 JAN 2019

New BCIS methodology for Tender Price Index estimates

BCIS has introduced a new methodology for estimating the latest All-in Tender Price Index results.

The new method is based on a panel (Delphi) survey approach*. BCIS has recruited a panel of cost consultants from firms involved in multiple tenders in each quarter.

The BCIS Panel Tender Price Index is intended to measure the trend of contractors' pricing levels in accepted tenders at commit to construct: ie. cost to client in the previous quarter (mid-quarter to mid-quarter).

A questionnaire asking for the individual panel members’ experience in the last quarter is completed. The questionnaire also requests contextual details for the responses: ie. location, size, procurement routes, building types.

The results are analysed and reported to the panel for discussion. A consensus increase in the TPI is agreed following the discussion. The result is a percentage change in the quarter.

The index will be used to provide an estimate of the BCIS All-in Tender Price Index in the latest quarter. It will be combined with results from project indices until there are enough projects available to replace the estimate.

It will not be published as a separate series.

The existing methodology for calculating the TPI is based on pricing levels in contracts typically single stage, traditional procurement, average value <£5million, (minimum £100,000, no maximum). It excludes M&E and other specialist trades, for example facades. It is assumed that this reflects the market for single stage design and build, and specification and drawing schemes.

Project Indices are normalised for location, size and procurement.

The BCIS TPI panel

  • Ian Aldous, Arcadis
  • Simon Birchall
  • Simon Cash, Artelia
  • Rachel Coleman, Alinea
  • Richard Hill, Currie and Brown
  • Karl Horton, Mott MacDonald Group
  • Kristopher Hudson, Turner & Townsend
  • Philip Hynard
  • Mark Lacey, Alinea
  • Brian Livingston, Gardiner & Theobald
  • Simon Longstaffe, F+G
  • Peter Maguire, WT Partnership
  • Adam Reeve, Calfordseaden
  • Phil Southgate, Gleeds
  • Will Waller, Arcadis
  • Steve Waltho, Turner & Townsend

*The Delphi method is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds to arrive at a consensus.