Greg Clark

Urbanist

The cities of the middle east, north Africa and Turkey – collectively, the MENAT region – are, for an urbanist, some of the most interesting in the world.

This year alone, three cities in the region will host major gatherings of global importance. The tenth session of the World Urban Forum took place in Abu Dhabi in mid-February; beginning in October, Expo 2020, self-styled as “The World’s Greatest Show”, will visit Dubai; and, in November, Riyadh will host the G20 for the first time.

Each of these is significant in its own way and for its own reasons. But beyond those individual significances, the proximity (in both geographical and chronological terms) of the three events is hugely symbolic. This part of the world is increasingly becoming a place where world leaders convene for reasons other than crisis and peace talks, and a destination for influencers in tech, capital and civic life. Furthermore, as it shifts away from a single dominant industry, it has emerged as a demonstrator region, mapping a path that others will seek to follow.

Greg clark portrait

Greg Clark CBE - Urbanist, thought leader and WBEF columnist

“This year alone, three MENAT cities will host major gatherings of global importance. There can be no better proof of the region’s growing confidence on the world stage. ”

Economic diversification is catalysing a move away from the absolute dominance of the motor car as the preferred means of urban transport, along with the creation of some world-leading alternative and renewable energy projects. From a policy standpoint, the new cities and new districts agenda is developing, playing out against a backdrop of wide-ranging social reform. Whilst it is right to say that there is a long way to go on all of the above points, it is equally fair to acknowledge that the general direction of travel seems to be correct.

The middle east has long been viewed as a troubled region: a theatre of seemingly perpetual conflict, in which economic development is entirely reliant on the fortunes of the oil and gas industry. The challenge of hosting three events of global importance in such a short period of time is sizeable, and arguably without modern precedent. Readers will remember that China hosted both the Summer Olympics and World Expo within the space of two years (2008 – 2010), while Brazil hosted the FIFA Men’s World Cup and Summer Olympics over a similar timeframe (2014 – 2016). But one can’t easily call to mind a time at which three cities in a single region hosted three events of comparable size and scale in the space of a single calendar year. There can be no better proof of the region’s growing confidence on the world stage.

The urbanisation story here is absolutely fascinating. We may sometimes think of MENAT as a region of desert nations; in actual fact, these countries are either highly urbanised or rapidly urbanising. New cities are springing up, and existing ones are expanding. Projections indicate that no country will see a greater rise in its urbanised population than Egypt between now and 2050. The populations of other nations in the region, for instance Kuwait and Qatar, are to all intents and purposes 100% urbanised already. Over the coming 15 years, population growth is expected to exceed 15% in 28 of the region’s 30 largest cities, with the rate of growth in Cairo – already the region’s largest metropolis – set to top 35%.

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“The urbanisation story here is absolutely fascinating. Projections indicate that no country will see a greater rise in its urbanised population than Egypt between now and 2050. The populations of other nations in the region, for instance Kuwait and Qatar, are to all intents and purposes 100% urbanised already. ”

The historic success of MENAT’s commodities industries means that the financial resource exists to seed good urbanisation – optimising services, markets and supply chains – rather than bad urbanisation, which damages productivity, entrenches poverty and exacerbates the climate crisis. One of the key indicators of good or bad urbanisation is urban transport policy. Happily, a decisive approach has been taken by many cities across the region in this respect, encouraging a modal shift towards public transport and away from the privately owned automobile.

In Riyadh, a city of roughly one-million households and two-million cars, the world’s largest urban rail project outside of China is nearing completion. The six-line, 85 station metro system is designed to decongest a city already unwalkable and bordering on undriveable, at a total estimated cost of US$ 23 billion. In Dubai, the world’s largest driverless and automated metro network will gain an extra 15km by the spring of this year.

The conditions are being created for the greater integration of labour markets across the region, with knock on benefits in the provision of quality and affordable housing. In order to bridge the productivity gap to their middle-east counterparts, it will be necessary for the cities of north Africa to follow suit.

Perhaps most crucially, high-capacity public transport networks have a counteractive influence on car dependency. The benefit of this in terms of carbon emissions alone is self-explanatory. Although we haven’t yet seen a definitive shift towards a carless middle east, it is certainly heralded by the arrival of these systems.

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The level of investment in new cities and neighbourhoods is similarly remarkable. Masdar City in Abu Dhabi is exemplary. Home to one of the world’s highest concentrations of low carbon buildings, and the region’s first clean-tech startup accelerator, the stated aim of the Abu Dhabi government is to make Masdar the world’s first zero-carbon city.

Of greater scale still is Neom, sometimes referred to as the world’s most ambitious project. Due for completion in 2025, the 26,500 square-km cross-border city will unite territories in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt to form an independent economic zone. With powers of trade, regulation and taxation devolved to local leaders, Neom has the character of an old European city state, reimagined for the 21st century. The government and people of Saudi Arabia are bullish about the project’s potential. US$ 500 billion in funding was committed by the Kingdom’s public investment fund. Meanwhile, 60% of Saudi respondents to a recent Ipsos survey stated their belief that Neom will supersede Dubai as the region’s best environment for work, business and tourism.

Complementary to such projects is an important programme of social reform, as those previously regarded as expatriate workers are increasingly permitted to stay indefinitely in the region as lifetime, rather than time-limited, residents. This is particularly the case in the Emirates and will be hugely important in encouraging local entrepreneurship. It should also help in the provision of social services and the creation of settled, large, cosmopolitan populations. This is indicative of a broader process of “opening-up”, which could ultimately reposition MENAT as a vibrant and inclusive region, rather than a haven for expat employees of large multinationals, and emigres from the developing world, concentrated in the personal service and construction sectors.

All in all, as a region, MENAT’s cities are demonstrating a real appetite for leadership on the question of inclusive and sustainable urbanisation in the 21st century. They are seeking to become exemplars of good urbanisation and shake off the long-held aspersions that have dogged their region. 2020 is the year that the middle east plays host to the world. That, in itself, may be a sign of things to come.     

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