Europe Commercial Property Monitor – Q1 2026

The latest RICS Europe Commercial Property Monitor points to a broadly stable but increasingly fragile outlook, with sentiment remaining slightly negative as geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on confidence. While activity has so far shown resilience, tightening credit conditions and softer capital value expectations are driving greater caution across European markets.

A market holding steady - but only just

At the headline level, conditions across Europe have changed very little since late 2025. The Commercial Property Sentiment Index (CPSI) edged down only marginally from -6 to -8, suggesting that the market is broadly steady.

However, this apparent stability masks a more cautious tone among market participants. Both the occupier and investment sides reflect this hesitation, with sentiment indicators also sitting at -8, reinforcing the idea that neither demand nor investment appetite is driving strong momentum right now.

Encouragingly, activity levels have not yet materially weakened. Occupier demand and investment enquiries remain relatively resilient, and around 30% of respondents still believe the market is in the early stages of an upturn, unchanged from the previous quarter.

Capital values soften while rents hold up

Another key trend is the divergence between rental and capital value expectations.

• Capital value expectations (12 months): dropped from +7% to -2%
• Short-term capital outlook (3 months): fell further to -10%
• Rental expectations (12 months): improved slightly to +5%
   

This suggests that while underlying occupier demand remains relatively intact (supporting rents), investors are becoming more cautious on pricing and returns.

Read the full report for more market insights