China’s 15th Five-Year Plan Drives Transformation in Real Estate and Construction

I. Strategic Positioning and Transformation Logic: A New Era of High-Quality Development

China’s entry into the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030) marks a pivotal stage in its path toward socialist modernisation and represents a fundamental shift in its development paradigm. The plan clearly articulates a transition from “scale expansion” to “quality enhancement,” from factor-driven growth to innovation-led development, and from fragmented optimisation to systemic coordination. These shifts are particularly transformative for the real estate and construction sectors.

Notably, unlike previous plans – where real estate was embedded within the broader framework of urbanisation – the 15th Five-Year Plan elevates the sector into the strategic priority of “ensuring and improving people’s livelihoods.” This signals a decisive policy reorientation toward housing as a social good rather than a purely economic driver.

The plan emphasises key priorities such as revitalising existing land and housing stock and advancing urban renewal, while establishing a clear policy boundary: in principle, new construction land will no longer be allocated for commercial real estate development. This effectively marks the end of the long-standing land-driven expansion model and the beginning of an era defined by stock asset management.

The implications are profound. Local governments must transition away from the traditional “land transfer–development–sales–fiscal recycling” model toward a more diversified fiscal structure incorporating industrial development and equity-based financing. For the real estate sector, this entails a shift from short-cycle, transaction-driven models to long-term asset management strategies. For the construction sector, the focus moves from scale delivery to value creation through green and intelligent solutions.

II. Implications for the Real Estate Sector: Institutional Restructuring and Operational Transformation

1. Housing Support System Optimisation: Precision and Flexibility

The plan introduces a more sophisticated and adaptive housing support framework, focusing on:

• Optimising affordable housing supply structures.
• Strengthening full-cycle management mechanisms.
• Exploring dynamic conversion between rental and ownership housing.
• Deepening housing provident fund reform.
   

This represents a shift from the “rapid establishment” phase of the 14th Five-Year Plan to a more mature stage of continuous optimisation and quality enhancement.

Implementation will follow a “region–population–product” framework, enabling differentiated supply strategies aligned with local demographic and economic conditions. The introduction of rental-sale conversion mechanisms is particularly significant, offering a structural solution to regional supply-demand imbalances.

At the same time, reforms to the housing provident fund system will expand access – particularly for flexible and non-traditional workers – broadening the reach of housing support.

2. Stable Market Development: Institutional Innovation and Stock Utilisation

The plan establishes a comprehensive framework for market stability based on:

• Institutional innovation.
• Improved supply-demand alignment.
• Product and service quality enhancement.
   

Key reforms include the introduction of the project company system and the lead bank financing model, both aimed at mitigating financial risk and improving capital discipline. The promotion of ready-built housing sales further reduces reliance on high-turnover development cycles and encourages quality-driven delivery.

Land supply policy also undergoes a fundamental shift, requiring alignment with population dynamics and existing housing inventory, while granting greater autonomy to local governments. This creates a coordinated mechanism linking people, housing, land, and capital.

Urban regeneration becomes a central theme, with aging residential communities undergoing age-friendly retrofits and smart upgrades, alongside integrated planning of employment clusters and residential supply to promote jobs-housing balance.

3. Quality Enhancement and Risk Management: Delivering “Quality Homes”

The plan places strong emphasis on delivering “safe, comfortable, green, and intelligent” housing, supported by:

• Nationwide housing quality improvement initiatives.
• Enhanced property management standards.
• Increased supply of upgraded housing through city-specific policies.
   

In parallel, a full lifecycle risk management framework is introduced, including building inspection, maintenance funding, and insurance systems. The proposed dual-track housing safety fund mechanism – combining individual and public accounts – provides a sustainable financial model for maintaining and upgrading aging assets.

III. Implications for Real Estate and Construction: Green Transformation and Value Creation

1. Green Building Evolution: From New Supply to Stock Transformation

Green development enters a new phase of full lifecycle management. Carbon policy evolves from intensity-based targets to dual control of total emissions and intensity, while national strategies increasingly prioritise zero-carbon industrial parks and buildings.

Crucially, the focus expands beyond new construction to include retrofitting existing assets. In markets such as Shanghai, this trend is already evident:

• Multinational occupiers prioritise buildings with transparent lifecycle carbon data
• Domestic firms increasingly align with ESG-driven investment strategies
• Sectors such as technology and life sciences demonstrate heightened sensitivity to low-carbon requirements
   

2. Rental Market Reform and Asset Securitisation: Operations as Core Value Driver

Supply-side reform in the rental market emphasises:

• Controlling new development
• Reducing excess inventory
• Improving housing quality
   

Policies encourage the conversion of existing commercial housing into affordable rental stock, while enhancing standards through the “good housing” framework.

At the same time, capital markets are evolving. The expansion of public REITs to include commercial real estate introduces a new “infrastructure + commercial property” dual-track model, enabling asset liquidity and more efficient capital recycling.

Valuation metrics are also shifting. In a stock-driven market:

• Operational performance
• Tenant experience
• Sustainability credentials
   

become key determinants of asset value. High-carbon assets face increasing obsolescence risk, while low-carbon, well-managed properties attract institutional capital and maintain exit optionality.

3. Full Lifecycle Carbon Management: From Cost Centre to Investment Strategy

The construction sector is undergoing a comprehensive transition toward green and low-carbon development, supported by national policy emphasis on coordinated environmental and economic outcomes.

Although not explicitly codified, full lifecycle carbon management is becoming an operational imperative. This includes:

• Monitoring emissions across design, construction, and operations
• Deploying low-carbon materials and technologies
• Integrating renewable energy systems and smart building solutions
   

Importantly, sustainability investments are increasingly viewed as value-accretive, rather than cost burdens.

Financial markets reinforce this shift. Instruments such as green bonds and sustainability-linked loans require measurable carbon reduction outcomes, including embodied carbon and Scope 3 emissions. Assets with strong carbon performance benefit from improved financing conditions and more favourable risk pricing.

Conclusion: Advancing Toward a High-Quality Development Paradigm

The 15th Five-Year Plan marks a decisive turning point for China’s real estate and construction sectors. The transition from expansion-driven growth to quality-led development redefines industry fundamentals.

Institutional, technological, and business model innovation will collectively drive this transformation. For industry participants, the shift presents a strategic opportunity to enhance operational capabilities and reposition portfolios. For society, it promises improved housing quality, more sustainable urban environments, and a more resilient and inclusive housing system.

中国十五五规划驱动房地产与建筑行业转型：从规模扩张到质量跃升的战略重构

    “十五五”规划（2026-2030年）作为中国全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的关键阶段，承载着推动经济结构优化、创新动能转换与民生福祉提升的多重使命。规划以“高质量发展”为主线，明确提出从“规模速度型”向“质量效率型”转型的战略导向，强调通过制度创新、科技赋能与绿色发展破解发展瓶颈，构建“双循环”新发展格局下的可持续增长模式。在此背景下，RICS特邀中国区域理事会成员Shaun Brodie分享深度解析，从住房保障重构、市场制度创新、绿色建筑升级、全周期碳管理四大维度，阐释“十五五”对房地产建筑行业的范式变革意义。以下为核心观点精要——

一、战略定位与转型逻辑：十五五规划开启高质量发展新纪元

     我国已经迈入"十五五"时期（2026-2030年），这一阶段是基本实现社会主义现代化目标的关键五年，也是发展逻辑发生根本性变革的转折期。规划明确提出从"规模扩张"转向"质量跃升"、从"要素驱动"转向"创新驱动"、从"局部优化"转向"系统协同"的战略导向，这一转型在房地产与建筑领域尤为深刻。

     不同于以往五年规划将房地产内容置于"完善新型城镇化战略"板块，"十五五"规划将其纳入"加大保障和改善民生力度"的战略任务，凸显政策重心向民生保障的根本性转变。规划聚焦"存量用地和房产盘活及土地续期"等核心问题，并确立"新增建设用地原则上不用于经营性房地产开发"的政策红线，标志着持续数十年的土地增量扩张模式正式退出历史舞台，存量资产运营时代全面开启。

      这一转型具有深远的战略内涵：土地财政向产业财政、股权财政的综合财政方向转变，要求地方政府突破传统"土地出让-开发投资-住房销售-财政支出"的闭环思维，转向培育新质生产力、提升城市运营效率的新路径。对于房地产行业，意味着从"拿地-开发-销售"的短周期套利模式，向"收购-改造-运营-退出"的存量资管长周期模式转型；对于建筑行业，则意味着从"规模建造"向"绿色智慧运营"的价值创造模式升级。

二、房地产行业影响：制度重构与运营范式系统性变革

1. 住房保障体系优化：精准匹配与动态转换
     规划在住房保障领域提出四大创新路径：优化保障性住房供给结构、健全全流程管理机制、探索配租配售型房源动态转换、深化住房公积金制度改革。相较于"十四五"时期"加快建立"的阶段性目标，本轮规划更突出"健全"与"优化"的持续性要求，折射出保障房体系从"规模扩张"向"质量提升"的战略转型。

     在具体实施层面，供给策略转向"区域-人群-产品"三维动态优化模式。针对不同城市能级、人口结构特征，实施差异化供给规模调控与产品结构调整。创新性的配租配售转换机制成为破解区域性供需矛盾的关键抓手，通过制度化用途转换实现资源高效配置。

     住房公积金制度改革同步深化，支持灵活就业人员参保并扩大使用范围，构建覆盖更广泛人群的住房保障网。

2. 市场平稳健康发展：制度创新与存量盘活
     在市场运行层面，规划从基础制度完善、供需匹配优化、品质升级三大维度构建系统性解决方案。

     基础制度创新方面，推行房地产开发项目公司制和融资主办银行制，支持合理融资需求并有序推进现房销售。项目公司制通过法人隔离解决资金挪用风险，主办银行制通过银企深度合作稳定融资渠道，现房销售则打破高周转资金循环，迫使房企转向质量运营。

     土地供应逻辑发生根本性转变，规划要求"促进土地供应与存量住房、人口变动相协调"，并"充分赋予城市政府调控自主权"，形成"人、房、地、钱"要素联动机制。老旧小区通过适老化改造、智慧化升级焕发新生，产业集中区配套租赁住房实现职住平衡重构。

3. 品质提升与风险防控：建设安全舒适绿色智慧的“好房子”
    规划提及"建设安全舒适绿色智慧的'好房子'"，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动，要求因城施策增加改善性住房供给。

    风险防控方面，建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度，涵盖体检、资金、保险三大体系。其中，房屋安全资金制度创新性地采用"个人账户+公共账户"双轨模式，通过财政预算、土地出让金归集等渠道充实公共账户，为老旧房屋修缮提供可持续资金保障。

三、房地产建筑行业影响：绿色转型与价值创造新范式

1. 绿色建筑标准升级：从增量标配到存量改造
    "十五五"时期，绿色建筑发展进入全生命周期管理新阶段。政策层面，"碳排放双控"从强度控制升级为总量与强度并重；零碳园区和工厂建设被明确纳入国家战略，配套设立低碳转型专项基金。

    绿色建筑覆盖范围从新建领域向存量改造延伸。以上海甲级写字楼市场为例，绿色认证建筑占比显著提升，租户选址时积极考量运营碳与隐含碳指标。跨国公司更倾向选择具备全生命周期碳数据透明、提供可持续装修方案的建筑，本土企业则受ESG投资趋势驱动重视低碳设计。科技与生命科学领域租户因全球报告要求，对低碳建筑尤为敏感。

2. 租赁市场与资产证券化：运营能力成核心竞争力
     租赁市场供给侧改革方面，规划提出"控增量、去库存、优供给"方针，探索多渠道盘活存量商品房。例如，鼓励收购存量商品房用于保障性住房，通过"好房子"标准提升租赁品质。

     资本市场创新方面，公募REITs扩容至商业不动产领域，形成"基础设施+商业不动产"双轮驱动格局。商业地产机构通过发行公募REITs实现资产证券化，盘活存量资产。消费类物业和商业不动产REITs项目通过REITs方式实现退出，提高资产流动性和收益水平。

     资产估值逻辑发生根本性转变。随着市场从增量扩张向存量提质转型，资产管理能力、运营服务品质和租户体验成为物业价值核心评价维度。高碳建筑面临运营成本高企与租金竞争力下降的双重挤压，而全生命周期碳绩效优异的资产更能保值增值，吸引机构买家并保持退出灵活性。

3. 全生命周期碳管理：从成本项到投资项
     "十五五"时期，建筑行业全面转向绿色低碳转型。政府工作报告将绿色转型置于独立专节，强调协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长。全生命周期碳管理虽未直接写入规划，但绿色建筑标准升级、碳排放双控等政策均体现其重要性。

     实施路径上，企业需建立完善的碳管理体系，对设计、施工、运营各环节进行碳排放监控。例如，采用节能建筑材料和技术，降低建筑全生命周期碳排放；通过光伏一体化、智能楼宇系统实现节能改造，将绿色改造从成本项转化为资产升值投资项。

     资本市场方面，绿色债券、可持续发展挂钩贷款等绿色金融工具融资总量持续增长，要求对隐含碳或范围3排放减少量进行量化核定。低碳资产享受更优惠的保险与承保条件，碳绩效成为风险评估与定价核心指标。

结语：迈向高质量发展的新征程

    "十五五"时期，房地产行业告别旧模式，迈向高质量发展新阶段；建筑行业从规模建造转向绿色智慧运营的价值创造。这一转型过程中，制度创新、技术创新、模式创新将共同推动行业实现质量跃升。对于行业参与者，这是构建新模式、提升运营能力的战略机遇；对于社会公众，将迎来住房品质提升、生活环境改善、居住选择多元、权益保障完善的新生活。